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Ha Noi vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Ha Noi
Ha Noiadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
6/25/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsSân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ha Noi49%
×Draw21%
Ceres29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
2.04
Ceres
1.54

Ha Noi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.86
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.86
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
71%
Ha Noi or Ceres
79%
Draw or Ceres
51%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
28%
Ceres wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
87%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
60%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
33%
Ceres 1+ goals
79%
Ceres 2+ goals
45%
Ceres 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
63%
Ceres (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.86 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ceres attack 2.22 + Ha Noi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ha Noi scores more
49%
level
21%
Ceres scores more
29%

Ha Noi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ha Noi vs Ceres

Ha Noi beat Ceres 2-1 in AFC Cup on June 25, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi)).