Ha Noi 1–0 Binh Dinh: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Ha Noi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binh Dinh

9/14/2024

V.League 1 · Round 1Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Ha Noi51%

×Draw24%

Binh Dinh25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ha NoiExpected goals in this matchBinh Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Ha Noi

1.67

Binh Dinh

1.08

Ha Noi creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 54 away

2.11

creates per match

1.17

0.99

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ha Noi

2.11

Binh Dinh

1.17

allows per match

Ha Noi

0.99

Binh Dinh

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Binh Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw

75%

Ha Noi or Binh Dinh

76%

Draw or Binh Dinh

49%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+

27%

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals

81%

Ha Noi 2+ goals

50%

Ha Noi 3+ goals

23%

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

66%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

29%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)

67%

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.99 · 91 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.11 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Ha Noi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ha Noi scores more

51%

level

24%

Binh Dinh scores more

25%

Ha Noi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff