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Ha Noi vs April 25 — AFC Cup 2018

Ha Noi
Ha Noi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
April 25
April 25
9/25/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal FinalsSân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ha Noi46%
×Draw22%
April 2532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
1.93
April 25
1.58

Ha Noi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.86
April 25
2.30

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.86
April 25
1.00

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
April 25+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

April 25 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
68%
Ha Noi or April 25
78%
Draw or April 25
54%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
26%
April 25 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
85%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
57%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
30%
April 25 1+ goals
79%
April 25 2+ goals
47%
April 25 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
59%
April 25 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

April 25 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.86 + April 25 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

April 25 attack 2.30 + Ha Noi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ha Noi scores more
46%
level
22%
April 25 scores more
32%

Ha Noi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ha Noi 2 – 2 April 25

Ha Noi and April 25 drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi)).