H&W Welders 0–3 Carrick Rangers: Result & Stats

H&W Welders

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Carrick Rangers

Unknown 66', 10', 3'

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

H&W Welders22%

×Draw19%

Carrick Rangers59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchCarrick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

2.48

H&W Welders

1.47

Carrick Rangers

2.48

Carrick Rangers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.80

creates per match

2.86

2.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

H&W Welders

1.80

Carrick Rangers

2.86

allows per match

H&W Welders

2.10

Carrick Rangers

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Carrick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

41%

H&W Welders or Carrick Rangers

81%

Draw or Carrick Rangers

78%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

10%

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

77%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

43%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

18%

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

92%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

70%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

27%

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 1.80 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Carrick Rangers attack 2.86 + H&W Welders defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

H&W Welders scores more

22%

level

19%

Carrick Rangers scores more

59%

Carrick Rangers at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

10'

11'

Missed penalty

66'

H&W

Carrick

Manager: Paul Kee

Manager: Stephen Baxter