H&W Welders 4–0 Annagh United: Result & Stats

H&W Welders

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Annagh United

4/24/2026

League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

H&W Welders52%

×Draw22%

Annagh United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchAnnagh United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.38

H&W Welders

1.99

Annagh United

1.38

H&W Welders creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

2.82

creates per match

1.28

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

H&W Welders

2.82

Annagh United

1.28

allows per match

H&W Welders

1.47

Annagh United

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Annagh United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

73%

H&W Welders or Annagh United

78%

Draw or Annagh United

48%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

30%

Annagh United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

86%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

59%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

32%

Annagh United 1+ goals

75%

Annagh United 2+ goals

40%

Annagh United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

66%

Annagh United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.82 + Annagh United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.99

Annagh United attack 1.28 + H&W Welders defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

H&W Welders scores more

52%

level

22%

Annagh United scores more

27%

H&W Welders at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff