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Hønefoss W vs TIL 2020 W — 1. Division Women 2022

Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
TIL 2020 W
TIL 2020 W
8/19/20231. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 14AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hønefoss W48%
×Draw23%
TIL 2020 W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss W
1.84
TIL 2020 W
1.39

Hønefoss W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 49 away

creates per match

Hønefoss W
2.25
TIL 2020 W
1.61

allows per match

Hønefoss W
1.17
TIL 2020 W
1.43

finishing

Hønefoss W+0.00on par
TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss W ↓

TIL 2020 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hønefoss W or draw
71%
Hønefoss W or TIL 2020 W
77%
Draw or TIL 2020 W
52%

Winning margin

Hønefoss W wins by 2+
26%
TIL 2020 W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hønefoss W 1+ goals
84%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
55%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
28%
TIL 2020 W 1+ goals
75%
TIL 2020 W 2+ goals
40%
TIL 2020 W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
62%
TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

TIL 2020 W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss W attack 2.25 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.84

TIL 2020 W attack 1.61 + Hønefoss W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hønefoss W scores more
48%
level
23%
TIL 2020 W scores more
29%

Hønefoss W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hønefoss W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Hønefoss W 2–0 TIL 2020 W

Hønefoss W beat TIL 2020 W 2-0 in 1. Division Women on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at AKA Arena in Hønefoss.