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Hønefoss W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — Toppserien 2021

Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
Preview
11:00
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
8/29/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 14
Big match
55%
Fortuna Ålesund W
model favours
23%21%55%

70% of Hønefoss W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hønefoss W23%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Ålesund W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss W
1.28
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.07

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hønefoss W
1.16
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.40

allows per match

Hønefoss W
1.74
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.40

finishing

Hønefoss W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hønefoss W or draw
45%
Hønefoss W or Fortuna Ålesund W
79%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
77%

Winning margin

Hønefoss W wins by 2+
10%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Hønefoss W 1+ goals
72%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
37%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
87%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
61%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
30%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss W attack 1.16 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.40 + Hønefoss W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hønefoss W scores more
23%
level
21%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
55%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hønefoss W win just 13% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hønefoss W host Fortuna Ålesund W

August 29, 2026: Hønefoss W take on Fortuna Ålesund W in Toppserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.