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Hønefoss W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — 1. Division Women 2022

Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
S. Bekkasen Nyhagen 75' (pen)
K. Gumaer 50'
C. Osnes-Ringen 45'
G. Ron 18'
11/2/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Promotion Round - 4AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hønefoss W45%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Ålesund W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss W
1.75
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.42

Hønefoss W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hønefoss W
2.25
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.67

allows per match

Hønefoss W
1.17
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.25

finishing

Hønefoss W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hønefoss W or draw
69%
Hønefoss W or Fortuna Ålesund W
77%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
55%

Winning margin

Hønefoss W wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hønefoss W 1+ goals
83%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
52%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
76%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
41%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
59%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss W attack 2.25 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Hønefoss W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hønefoss W scores more
45%
level
23%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
31%

Hønefoss W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hønefoss W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
G. Ron
45'
C. Osnes-Ringen
50'
K. Gumaer
75'
S. Bekkasen NyhagenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Hønefoss W 2–2 Fortuna Ålesund W

Hønefoss W and Fortuna Ålesund W drew 2-2 in 1. Division Women on November 2, 2024.

Goals: G. Ron (18'), C. Osnes-Ringen (45'), K. Gumaer (50'), S. Bekkasen Nyhagen (75' pen).

The match was played at AKA Arena in Hønefoss.