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Hønefoss vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hønefoss
Hønefoss
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
4/20/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 2AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hønefoss76%
×Draw14%
Raufoss II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss
2.88
Raufoss II
0.97

Hønefoss creates 197% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hønefoss
2.61
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Hønefoss
1.06
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Hønefoss+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hønefoss or draw
90%
Hønefoss or Raufoss II
86%
Draw or Raufoss II
24%

Winning margin

Hønefoss wins by 2+
55%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hønefoss 1+ goals
94%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
78%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
54%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
62%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
25%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss (draw refunded)
88%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss attack 2.61 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.88

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Hønefoss defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hønefoss scores more
76%
level
14%
Raufoss II scores more
10%

Hønefoss at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hønefoss vs Raufoss II

Raufoss II beat Hønefoss 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at AKA Arena in Hønefoss.