Hønefoss 4–1 Hødd II: Result & Stats

Hønefoss

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hødd II

9/24/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 21AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hønefoss65%

×Draw17%

Hødd II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HønefossExpected goals in this matchHødd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.40

Hønefoss

2.75

Hødd II

1.40

Hønefoss creates 96% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

2.61

creates per match

1.73

1.06

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Hønefoss

2.61

Hødd II

1.73

allows per match

Hønefoss

1.06

Hødd II

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hønefoss+0.00on par

Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss ↓

Hødd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hønefoss or draw

82%

Hønefoss or Hødd II

83%

Draw or Hødd II

35%

Winning margin

Hønefoss wins by 2+

45%

Hødd II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hønefoss 1+ goals

93%

Hønefoss 2+ goals

75%

Hønefoss 3+ goals

51%

Hødd II 1+ goals

75%

Hødd II 2+ goals

41%

Hødd II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss (draw refunded)

79%

Hødd II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss attack 2.61 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.75

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Hønefoss defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hønefoss scores more

65%

level

17%

Hødd II scores more

18%

Hønefoss at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff