Hønefoss 1–0 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Hønefoss

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad II

4/22/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 3AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hønefoss84%

×Draw10%

Fredrikstad II6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HønefossExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.69

1.00

Hønefoss

3.69

Fredrikstad II

1.00

Hønefoss creates 269% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

4.85

creates per match

1.31

0.69

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Hønefoss

4.85

Fredrikstad II

1.31

allows per match

Hønefoss

0.69

Fredrikstad II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hønefoss+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Hønefoss or draw

94%

Hønefoss or Fredrikstad II

90%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

16%

Winning margin

Hønefoss wins by 2+

68%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hønefoss 1+ goals

97%

Hønefoss 2+ goals

87%

Hønefoss 3+ goals

69%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

63%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

26%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss (draw refunded)

93%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss at home — creates 4.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss attack 4.85 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 3.69

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Hønefoss defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Hønefoss scores more

84%

level

10%

Fredrikstad II scores more

6%

Hønefoss at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff