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Hønefoss vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hønefoss
Hønefoss
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
7/4/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 13AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hønefoss61%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss
2.29
Aalesund II
1.23

Hønefoss creates 86% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hønefoss
2.61
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Hønefoss
1.06
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Hønefoss+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hønefoss or draw
80%
Hønefoss or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
39%

Winning margin

Hønefoss wins by 2+
39%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hønefoss 1+ goals
90%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
66%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
40%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
71%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
35%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss (draw refunded)
76%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss attack 2.61 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.29

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Hønefoss defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hønefoss scores more
61%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
20%

Hønefoss at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Hønefoss 0–2 Aalesund II

Aalesund II beat Hønefoss 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 4, 2022.

The match was played at AKA Arena in Hønefoss.