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H&H Export vs Walter Ferretti — Primera Division 2026

H&H Export
H&H Export
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Walter Ferretti
Walter Ferretti
1/31/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

H&H Export44%
×Draw26%
Walter Ferretti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&H Export
1.49
Walter Ferretti
1.19

H&H Export creates 25% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 137 away

creates per match

H&H Export
1.63
Walter Ferretti
1.03

allows per match

H&H Export
1.34
Walter Ferretti
1.35

finishing

H&H Export+0.00on par
Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&H Export ↓

Walter Ferretti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

H&H Export or draw
70%
H&H Export or Walter Ferretti
74%
Draw or Walter Ferretti
56%

Winning margin

H&H Export wins by 2+
22%
Walter Ferretti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

H&H Export 1+ goals
77%
H&H Export 2+ goals
44%
H&H Export 3+ goals
19%
Walter Ferretti 1+ goals
70%
Walter Ferretti 2+ goals
33%
Walter Ferretti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

H&H Export (draw refunded)
59%
Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&H Export at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 95 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&H Export attack 1.63 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Walter Ferretti attack 1.03 + H&H Export defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

H&H Export scores more
44%
level
26%
Walter Ferretti scores more
30%

H&H Export at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "H&H Export will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: H&H Export vs Walter Ferretti

H&H Export beat Walter Ferretti 1-0 in Primera Division on January 31, 2026.