H&H Export 2–3 Real Estelí: Result & Stats

H&H Export

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Real Estelí

2/28/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 4Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

H&H Export34%

×Draw25%

Real Estelí41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&H ExportExpected goals in this matchReal Estelí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

H&H Export

1.33

Real Estelí

1.50

Real Estelí creates 13% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 150 away

1.63

creates per match

1.67

1.34

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

H&H Export

1.63

Real Estelí

1.67

allows per match

H&H Export

1.34

Real Estelí

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&H Export+0.00on par

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&H Export ↓

Real Estelí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

H&H Export or draw

59%

H&H Export or Real Estelí

75%

Draw or Real Estelí

66%

Winning margin

H&H Export wins by 2+

15%

Real Estelí wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

H&H Export 1+ goals

74%

H&H Export 2+ goals

38%

H&H Export 3+ goals

15%

Real Estelí 1+ goals

78%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

44%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

H&H Export (draw refunded)

45%

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&H Export at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 95 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&H Export attack 1.63 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + H&H Export defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

H&H Export scores more

34%

level

25%

Real Estelí scores more

41%

Real Estelí at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head