H&H Export 1–0 Orgánica Masachapa: Result & Stats

H&H Export

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orgánica Masachapa

8/6/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 2Estadio Municipal de Matagalpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

H&H Export59%

×Draw21%

Orgánica Masachapa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&H ExportExpected goals in this matchOrgánica Masachapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.11

H&H Export

2.04

Orgánica Masachapa

1.11

H&H Export creates 84% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 18 away

1.63

creates per match

0.89

1.34

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

H&H Export

1.63

Orgánica Masachapa

0.89

allows per match

H&H Export

1.34

Orgánica Masachapa

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&H Export+0.00on par

Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&H Export ↓

Orgánica Masachapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

H&H Export or draw

80%

H&H Export or Orgánica Masachapa

79%

Draw or Orgánica Masachapa

41%

Winning margin

H&H Export wins by 2+

35%

Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

H&H Export 1+ goals

87%

H&H Export 2+ goals

60%

H&H Export 3+ goals

33%

Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals

67%

Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals

30%

Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

H&H Export (draw refunded)

74%

Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&H Export at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 95 matches

Orgánica Masachapa away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&H Export attack 1.63 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.04

Orgánica Masachapa attack 0.89 + H&H Export defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

H&H Export scores more

59%

level

21%

Orgánica Masachapa scores more

20%

H&H Export at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "H&H Export will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera Division: H&H Export 1–0 Orgánica Masachapa

H&H Export vs Orgánica Masachapa — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera Division: H&H Export 1–0 Orgánica Masachapa