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Hødd II vs Spjelkavik — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
2 – 1
Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
5/8/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 5Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hødd II41%
×Draw20%
Spjelkavik39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.17
Spjelkavik
2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Spjelkavik
1.78

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Spjelkavik
2.22

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Spjelkavik+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Spjelkavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
61%
Hødd II or Spjelkavik
80%
Draw or Spjelkavik
59%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
23%
Spjelkavik wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
89%
Hødd II 2+ goals
64%
Hødd II 3+ goals
36%
Spjelkavik 1+ goals
88%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
62%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
52%
Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Spjelkavik away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Spjelkavik defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.17

Spjelkavik attack 1.78 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hødd II scores more
41%
level
20%
Spjelkavik scores more
39%

Hødd II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Hødd II 2–1 Spjelkavik

Hødd II beat Spjelkavik 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.