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Hødd II vs Sogndal II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Sogndal II
Sogndal II
10/29/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 26Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II54%
×Draw18%
Sogndal II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.71
Sogndal II
1.94

Hødd II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Sogndal II
1.46

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Sogndal II
3.31

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Sogndal II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Sogndal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
72%
Hødd II or Sogndal II
82%
Draw or Sogndal II
46%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
35%
Sogndal II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
93%
Hødd II 2+ goals
75%
Hødd II 3+ goals
50%
Sogndal II 1+ goals
86%
Sogndal II 2+ goals
58%
Sogndal II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
66%
Sogndal II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Sogndal II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Sogndal II defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.71

Sogndal II attack 1.46 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hødd II scores more
54%
level
18%
Sogndal II scores more
28%

Hødd II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hødd II vs Sogndal II

Hødd II beat Sogndal II 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.