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Hødd II vs Skedsmo — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Skedsmo
Skedsmo
I. Johansen 60'
O. Aske 16'
E. Risberget 49', 37'
6/22/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 12Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II32%
×Draw22%
Skedsmo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
1.61
Skedsmo
1.97

Skedsmo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hødd II
1.23
Skedsmo
1.32

allows per match

Hødd II
2.62
Skedsmo
2.00

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Skedsmo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Skedsmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
54%
Hødd II or Skedsmo
78%
Draw or Skedsmo
68%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
15%
Skedsmo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
80%
Hødd II 2+ goals
48%
Hødd II 3+ goals
22%
Skedsmo 1+ goals
86%
Skedsmo 2+ goals
58%
Skedsmo 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
41%
Skedsmo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Skedsmo away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 1.23 + Skedsmo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Skedsmo attack 1.32 + Hødd II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hødd II scores more
32%
level
22%
Skedsmo scores more
46%

Skedsmo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Skedsmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
O. Aske
37'
E. Risberget
49'
E. Risberget
60'
I. Johansen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Hødd II 2–2 Skedsmo

Hødd II and Skedsmo drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: O. Aske (16'), E. Risberget (37', 49'), I. Johansen (60').

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.