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Hødd II vs Lillehammer — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lillehammer
Lillehammer
4/17/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 2Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II46%
×Draw21%
Lillehammer33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.13
Lillehammer
1.78

Hødd II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Lillehammer
1.15

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Lillehammer
2.15

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Lillehammer+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Lillehammer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
67%
Hødd II or Lillehammer
79%
Draw or Lillehammer
54%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
27%
Lillehammer wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
88%
Hødd II 2+ goals
63%
Hødd II 3+ goals
35%
Lillehammer 1+ goals
83%
Lillehammer 2+ goals
53%
Lillehammer 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
58%
Lillehammer (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Lillehammer away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Lillehammer defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lillehammer attack 1.15 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hødd II scores more
46%
level
21%
Lillehammer scores more
33%

Hødd II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Hødd II 1–2 Lillehammer

Lillehammer beat Hødd II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.