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Hødd II vs Lørenskog — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
9/15/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 21Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II13%
×Draw17%
Lørenskog70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
0.93
Lørenskog
2.42

Lørenskog creates 160% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hødd II
1.23
Lørenskog
2.23

allows per match

Hødd II
2.62
Lørenskog
0.62

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
30%
Hødd II or Lørenskog
83%
Draw or Lørenskog
87%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
4%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
61%
Hødd II 2+ goals
24%
Hødd II 3+ goals
7%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
91%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
69%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
15%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 1.23 + Lørenskog defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Lørenskog attack 2.23 + Hødd II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hødd II scores more
13%
level
17%
Lørenskog scores more
70%

Lørenskog at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hødd II vs Lørenskog

Lørenskog beat Hødd II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.