Hødd II 0–1 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Hødd II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kristiansund II

7/27/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 14Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II35%

×Draw21%

Kristiansund II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hødd IIExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.00

Hødd II

1.79

Kristiansund II

2.00

Kristiansund II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.23

creates per match

1.38

2.62

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Hødd II

1.23

Kristiansund II

1.38

allows per match

Hødd II

2.62

Kristiansund II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw

57%

Hødd II or Kristiansund II

79%

Draw or Kristiansund II

65%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+

18%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals

83%

Hødd II 2+ goals

53%

Hødd II 3+ goals

26%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

86%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

59%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)

45%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 1.23 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Hødd II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hødd II scores more

35%

level

21%

Kristiansund II scores more

43%

Kristiansund II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kristiansund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff