Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hødd II vs Kongsvinger II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
O. H. Nilsen 74'
D. Brandal 60'
J. Benjaminsen 5'
L. Langrekken 67'
10/9/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 24Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II53%
×Draw19%
Kongsvinger II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.45
Kongsvinger II
1.75

Hødd II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Kongsvinger II
1.08

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Kongsvinger II
2.77

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Kongsvinger II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
72%
Hødd II or Kongsvinger II
81%
Draw or Kongsvinger II
47%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
33%
Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
91%
Hødd II 2+ goals
70%
Hødd II 3+ goals
44%
Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
83%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
52%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
66%
Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Kongsvinger II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.45

Kongsvinger II attack 1.08 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hødd II scores more
53%
level
19%
Kongsvinger II scores more
28%

Hødd II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Benjaminsen
60'
D. Brandal
67'
L. Langrekken
74'
O. H. Nilsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hødd II 3 – 1 Kongsvinger II

Hødd II beat Kongsvinger II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 9, 2022.

Goals: J. Benjaminsen (5'), D. Brandal (60'), L. Langrekken (67'), O. H. Nilsen (74').

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.