Hødd II 4–5 Førde: Result & Stats

Hødd II

FT

4 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Førde

O. Aske 90'

M. Elveseter 54', 7'

M. Mulac 39'

M. Helgheim 88'

V. Savland 69', 24'

V. Hoynes 58'

J. F. Bergset 26'

9/7/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 19Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hødd II39%

×Draw20%

Førde41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hødd IIExpected goals in this matchFørde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.17

Hødd II

2.10

Førde

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.12

creates per match

1.92

2.42

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Hødd II

2.12

Førde

1.92

allows per match

Hødd II

2.42

Førde

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par

Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Førde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw

59%

Hødd II or Førde

80%

Draw or Førde

61%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+

21%

Førde wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals

88%

Hødd II 2+ goals

62%

Hødd II 3+ goals

35%

Førde 1+ goals

89%

Førde 2+ goals

64%

Førde 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)

48%

Førde (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Førde away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Førde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.10

Førde attack 1.92 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hødd II scores more

39%

level

20%

Førde scores more

41%

Førde at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Elveseter

24'

V. Savland

26'

J. F. Bergset

39'

M. Mulac

54'

M. Elveseter

58'

V. Hoynes

69'

V. Savland

88'

M. Helgheim

90'

O. Aske

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff