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Hødd II vs Brumunddal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brumunddal
Brumunddal
10/15/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 24Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hødd II47%
×Draw20%
Brumunddal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.41
Brumunddal
2.00

Hødd II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Brumunddal
1.58

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Brumunddal
2.69

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Brumunddal+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Brumunddal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
67%
Hødd II or Brumunddal
80%
Draw or Brumunddal
53%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
29%
Brumunddal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
91%
Hødd II 2+ goals
69%
Hødd II 3+ goals
43%
Brumunddal 1+ goals
86%
Brumunddal 2+ goals
59%
Brumunddal 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
59%
Brumunddal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Brumunddal away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Brumunddal defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.41

Brumunddal attack 1.58 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hødd II scores more
47%
level
20%
Brumunddal scores more
33%

Hødd II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hødd II vs Brumunddal

Hødd II and Brumunddal drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.