Gzira United 3–0 Hibernians: Result & Stats

Gzira United

FT

3 – 0

Hibernians

6/22/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gzira United76%

×Draw17%

Hibernians8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gzira UnitedExpected goals in this matchHibernians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.54

Gzira United

2.21

Hibernians

0.54

Gzira United creates 309% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.67

creates per match

0.75

0.33

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Gzira United

2.67

Hibernians

0.75

allows per match

Gzira United

0.33

Hibernians

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gzira United+0.00on par

Hibernians+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gzira United ↓

Hibernians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gzira United or draw

92%

Gzira United or Hibernians

83%

Draw or Hibernians

24%

Winning margin

Gzira United wins by 2+

51%

Hibernians wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Gzira United 1+ goals

89%

Gzira United 2+ goals

65%

Gzira United 3+ goals

38%

Hibernians 1+ goals

42%

Hibernians 2+ goals

10%

Hibernians 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Gzira United (draw refunded)

91%

Hibernians (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gzira United at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Hibernians away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gzira United attack 2.67 + Hibernians defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hibernians attack 0.75 + Gzira United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gzira United scores more

76%

level

17%

Hibernians scores more

8%

Gzira United at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gzira United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff