Gzira United 2–0 Fgura United: Result & Stats

Gzira United

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fgura United

1/15/2024

FA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gzira United73%

×Draw17%

Fgura United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gzira UnitedExpected goals in this matchFgura United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.81

Gzira United

2.42

Fgura United

0.81

Gzira United creates 199% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.11

0.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Gzira United

2.50

Fgura United

1.11

allows per match

Gzira United

0.50

Fgura United

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gzira United+0.00on par

Fgura United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gzira United ↓

Fgura United →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gzira United or draw

89%

Gzira United or Fgura United

83%

Draw or Fgura United

27%

Winning margin

Gzira United wins by 2+

50%

Fgura United wins by 2+

Team goals

Gzira United 1+ goals

91%

Gzira United 2+ goals

69%

Gzira United 3+ goals

43%

Fgura United 1+ goals

56%

Fgura United 2+ goals

19%

Fgura United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gzira United (draw refunded)

87%

Fgura United (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gzira United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Fgura United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gzira United attack 2.50 + Fgura United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fgura United attack 1.11 + Gzira United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gzira United scores more

73%

level

17%

Fgura United scores more

11%

Gzira United at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gzira United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff