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Gzira United vs F91 Dudelange — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Gzira United
Gzira United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
7/27/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gzira United47%
×Draw24%
F91 Dudelange29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gzira United
1.72
F91 Dudelange
1.29

Gzira United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gzira United
1.00
F91 Dudelange
0.71

allows per match

Gzira United
1.86
F91 Dudelange
2.43

finishing

Gzira United+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gzira United ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gzira United or draw
71%
Gzira United or F91 Dudelange
76%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
53%

Winning margin

Gzira United wins by 2+
25%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gzira United 1+ goals
82%
Gzira United 2+ goals
51%
Gzira United 3+ goals
25%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
72%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
37%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gzira United (draw refunded)
62%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gzira United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gzira United attack 1.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

F91 Dudelange attack 0.71 + Gzira United defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gzira United scores more
47%
level
24%
F91 Dudelange scores more
29%

Gzira United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gzira United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Gzira United 2–0 F91 Dudelange

Gzira United beat F91 Dudelange 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 27, 2023.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.