Gyori ETO II 1–3 Tatabánya: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tatabánya

7/30/2023

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 1ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gyori ETO II31%

×Draw22%

Tatabánya47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO IIExpected goals in this matchTatabánya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.92

Gyori ETO II

1.53

Tatabánya

1.92

Tatabánya creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.76

creates per match

2.07

1.76

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Gyori ETO II

1.76

Tatabánya

2.07

allows per match

Gyori ETO II

1.76

Tatabánya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Tatabánya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Tatabánya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw

53%

Gyori ETO II or Tatabánya

78%

Draw or Tatabánya

69%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

14%

Tatabánya wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

78%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

45%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

20%

Tatabánya 1+ goals

85%

Tatabánya 2+ goals

57%

Tatabánya 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

40%

Tatabánya (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Tatabánya away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 1.76 + Tatabánya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tatabánya attack 2.07 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more

31%

level

22%

Tatabánya scores more

47%

Tatabánya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff