Gyori ETO II 2–0 Dorogi FC: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dorogi FC

9/28/2025

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 9ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gyori ETO II40%

×Draw23%

Dorogi FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO IIExpected goals in this matchDorogi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.57

Gyori ETO II

1.67

Dorogi FC

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.76

creates per match

1.38

1.76

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Gyori ETO II

1.76

Dorogi FC

1.38

allows per match

Gyori ETO II

1.76

Dorogi FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Dorogi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw

64%

Gyori ETO II or Dorogi FC

77%

Draw or Dorogi FC

60%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

21%

Dorogi FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

81%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

50%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

23%

Dorogi FC 1+ goals

79%

Dorogi FC 2+ goals

46%

Dorogi FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

53%

Dorogi FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Dorogi FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 1.76 + Dorogi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dorogi FC attack 1.38 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more

40%

level

23%

Dorogi FC scores more

36%

Gyori ETO II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff