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Gyori ETO II vs Andráshida — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
FT
4 – 0
Andráshida
Andráshida
2/20/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyori ETO II81%
×Draw12%
Andráshida8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyori ETO II
3.35
Andráshida
1.00

Gyori ETO II creates 235% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gyori ETO II
2.08
Andráshida
0.63

allows per match

Gyori ETO II
1.37
Andráshida
4.63

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par
Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Andráshida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw
92%
Gyori ETO II or Andráshida
88%
Draw or Andráshida
19%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
63%
Andráshida wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
96%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
84%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
63%
Andráshida 1+ goals
63%
Andráshida 2+ goals
26%
Andráshida 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
91%
Andráshida (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 2.08 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.35

Andráshida attack 0.63 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more
81%
level
12%
Andráshida scores more
8%

Gyori ETO II at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Gyori ETO II 4–0 Andráshida

Gyori ETO II beat Andráshida 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at ETO Park in Győr.