Gyori ETO FC vs Zalaegerszegi TE

Gyori ETO FC

CANC

13:00

Zalaegerszegi TE

1/28/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gyori ETO FC39%

×Draw23%

Zalaegerszegi TE39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO FCExpected goals in this matchZalaegerszegi TE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

Gyori ETO FC

1.68

Zalaegerszegi TE

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.79

creates per match

1.43

1.93

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.79

Zalaegerszegi TE

1.43

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.93

Zalaegerszegi TE

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Zalaegerszegi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

Zalaegerszegi TE →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw

61%

Gyori ETO FC or Zalaegerszegi TE

77%

Draw or Zalaegerszegi TE

61%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+

20%

Zalaegerszegi TE wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals

81%

Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals

50%

Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals

24%

Zalaegerszegi TE 1+ goals

81%

Zalaegerszegi TE 2+ goals

50%

Zalaegerszegi TE 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)

50%

Zalaegerszegi TE (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Zalaegerszegi TE away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 1.79 + Zalaegerszegi TE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Zalaegerszegi TE attack 1.43 + Gyori ETO FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more

39%

level

23%

Zalaegerszegi TE scores more

39%

Gyori ETO FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gyori ETO FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff