Gyori ETO FC 2–0 Soroksar: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Soroksar

M. Škvarka 90'

C. Bumba 57' (pen)

4/7/2024

League #272 · Round 27ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gyori ETO FC56%

×Draw24%

Soroksar19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO FCExpected goals in this matchSoroksar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.87

Gyori ETO FC

1.68

Soroksar

0.87

Gyori ETO FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

1.87

creates per match

0.81

0.93

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.87

Soroksar

0.81

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC

0.93

Soroksar

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Soroksar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

Soroksar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw

81%

Gyori ETO FC or Soroksar

76%

Draw or Soroksar

44%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+

31%

Soroksar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals

81%

Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals

50%

Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals

24%

Soroksar 1+ goals

58%

Soroksar 2+ goals

22%

Soroksar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)

74%

Soroksar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Soroksar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 1.87 + Soroksar defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Soroksar attack 0.81 + Gyori ETO FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more

56%

level

24%

Soroksar scores more

19%

Gyori ETO FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gyori ETO FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

C. BumbaPenalty

58'

A. Szujó← D. Boldor

66'

F. Vianna

67'

F. Dragóner← K. Köböl

67'

Z. Varga← Z. Gálfi

75'

E. Nemeth

81'

B. Borbély← K. Korozmán

87'

Boschilia← D. Csontos

87'

M. Huszár← C. Kröhn

90+2'

P. Anton← C. Bumba

90+2'

Yasin Hamed← M. Diarra

90'

M. Škvarka

Gyori

Soroksar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Kuznetsov

58'▲A. Szujó←▼D. Boldor

87'▲Boschilia←▼D. Csontos

87'▲M. Huszár←▼C. Kröhn

90+2'▲P. Anton←▼C. Bumba

90+2'▲Yasin Hamed←▼M. Diarra

Gyori ETO FC substitutes

SzujóBoschiliaHuszárAntonHamedGyurákovicsVeraVinglerRiquelme

Manager: P. Lipcsei

67'▲F. Dragóner←▼K. Köböl

67'▲Z. Varga←▼Z. Gálfi

81'▲B. Borbély←▼K. Korozmán

Soroksar substitutes

DragónerVargaBorbélyHolczerVágiVinczePintérHajdúIstvánSipos