Gyori ETO FC 3–1 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pyunik Yerevan

D. Stefulj 90'

N. Benbouali 69', 16'

E. Ocansey 84'

7/31/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gyori ETO FC62%

×Draw21%

Pyunik Yerevan17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO FCExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.96

Gyori ETO FC

2.04

Pyunik Yerevan

0.96

Gyori ETO FC creates 113% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

2.33

creates per match

1.25

0.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC

2.33

Pyunik Yerevan

1.25

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC

0.67

Pyunik Yerevan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw

83%

Gyori ETO FC or Pyunik Yerevan

79%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

38%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+

38%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals

87%

Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals

60%

Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals

33%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

62%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

25%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)

78%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 2.33 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.25 + Gyori ETO FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more

62%

level

21%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

17%

Gyori ETO FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gyori ETO FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Krpic

16'

N. Benbouali↳ R. Toth

34'

R. Toth

67'

K. Hovhannisyan← D. Kulikov

67'

E. Ocansey← M. Vareika

69'

N. Benbouali↳ P. Anton

74'

J. Zivkovic← N. Njie

75'

S. Islamovic

81'

V. Goncalves← S. Islamovic

82'

M. Kovalenko← Alemao

83'

L. Vingler← S. Ouro

84'

E. Ocansey↳ M. Noubissi

90+2'

D. Stefulj

90+5'

A. Miljkovic

90+4'

S. Metoyan← N. Kainourgios

90+4'

O. Pyshchur← N. Benbouali

90+4'

D. Boldor← Z. Gavric

90'

D. Stefulj

Gyori

Pyunik

99

Petras

6

A

Toth

4

Abrahamss

24

Krpic

23

⚽

Stefulj

80

▼

Gavric

5

A

Anton

44

▼

Ouro

11

▼

Njie

7

⚽2

▼

10

16

26

76

79

3

▼

Kainourgi

2

▼

Alemao

22

▼

Islamovic

25

▼

Kulikov

10

Sanchez

99

A

Noubissi

9

▼

Vareika

Manager: Balazs Borbely

67'▲K. Hovhannisyan←▼D. Kulikov

67'▲E. Ocansey←▼M. Vareika

81'▲V. Goncalves←▼S. Islamovic

82'▲M. Kovalenko←▼Alemao

90+4'▲S. Metoyan←▼N. Kainourgios

Gyori ETO FC substitutes

71Buchnev4Udo7Malakyan8Tarakhchyan15Kovalenko18Hovhannisyan19Metoyan21Galstyan23Goncalves33Ocansey

74'▲J. Zivkovic←▼N. Njie

83'▲L. Vingler←▼S. Ouro

90+4'▲O. Pyshchur←▼N. Benbouali

90+4'▲D. Boldor←▼Z. Gavric

Pyunik Yerevan substitutes

64Brecska18Vingler19Pyshchur20Biro25Boldor37Urblik39Herczeg47Decsy70Tollar76Zivkovic96Huszar