Gyori ETO FC 3–1 Novi Pazar: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO FC

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Novi Pazar

M. Diarra 71'

N. Njie 66'

D. Boldor 59' (pen)

N. Kurdic 86'

1/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gyori ETO FC49%

×Draw23%

Novi Pazar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO FCExpected goals in this matchNovi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.34

Gyori ETO FC

1.83

Novi Pazar

1.34

Gyori ETO FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

0.89

1.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.67

Novi Pazar

0.89

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.80

Novi Pazar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

Novi Pazar →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw

72%

Gyori ETO FC or Novi Pazar

77%

Draw or Novi Pazar

51%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+

27%

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals

84%

Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals

54%

Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals

28%

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

74%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

39%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)

63%

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 1.67 + Novi Pazar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Novi Pazar attack 0.89 + Gyori ETO FC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more

49%

level

23%

Novi Pazar scores more

28%

Gyori ETO FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gyori ETO FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Diarra← Z. Gavric

59'

D. BoldorPenalty

61'

M. Krivokapic← L. Vera

66'

70'

71'

86'

Gyori

Novi

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Balazs Borbely

46'▲M. Diarra←▼Z. Gavric

61'▲M. Krivokapic←▼L. Vera

70'▲B. Biro←▼D. Boldor

Gyori ETO FC substitutes

Brecska7Diarra20Biro24Krpic90Banati9Krivokapic

Manager: Vladimir Gaćinović

Novi Pazar substitutes

27Kurdic13Adeshina2Bojat21Kovacevic45Brahic16OparaFilimonovic

Friendlies Clubs: Gyori ETO FC 3–1 Novi Pazar

Gyori ETO FC beat Novi Pazar 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Boldor (59' pen), N. Njie (66'), M. Diarra (71'), N. Kurdic (86').

Gyori ETO FC vs Novi Pazar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Gyori ETO FC 3–1 Novi Pazar