Gyori ETO FC 1–2 NK Osijek: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO FC

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

NK Osijek

D. Stefulj 8'

S. Mikolcic 120'

T. Teklic 46'

1/13/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gyori ETO FC33%

×Draw23%

NK Osijek44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO FCExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.71

Gyori ETO FC

1.46

NK Osijek

1.71

NK Osijek creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.63

1.80

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.67

NK Osijek

1.63

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.80

NK Osijek

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

NK Osijek →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw

56%

Gyori ETO FC or NK Osijek

77%

Draw or NK Osijek

67%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+

15%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals

77%

Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals

43%

Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals

18%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

82%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

51%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)

43%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 1.67 + NK Osijek defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

NK Osijek attack 1.63 + Gyori ETO FC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more

33%

level

23%

NK Osijek scores more

44%

NK Osijek at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

D. Stefulj

46'

T. Teklic

120'

S. Mikolcic

Gyori

Manager: Balazs Borbely

Manager: Zeljko Sopic