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Gyöngyös vs Újpest II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Újpest II
Újpest II
11/12/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 15Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gyöngyös32%
×Draw24%
Újpest II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.42
Újpest II
1.71

Újpest II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Újpest II
1.26

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Újpest II
1.50

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
56%
Gyöngyös or Újpest II
76%
Draw or Újpest II
68%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
15%
Újpest II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
76%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
41%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
17%
Újpest II 1+ goals
82%
Újpest II 2+ goals
51%
Újpest II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
42%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Újpest II attack 1.26 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
32%
level
24%
Újpest II scores more
44%

Újpest II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyöngyös vs Újpest II

Gyöngyös beat Újpest II 4-3 in NB III - Northeast on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.