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Gyöngyös vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
3 – 4
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
8/26/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 6Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gyöngyös32%
×Draw23%
Tiszafuredi VSE45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.48
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.81

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
55%
Gyöngyös or Tiszafuredi VSE
77%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
68%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
15%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
77%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
43%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
19%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
84%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
54%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
41%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
32%
level
23%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
45%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyöngyös vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Tiszafuredi VSE beat Gyöngyös 4-3 in NB III - Northeast on August 26, 2020.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.