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Gyöngyös vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
2 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
9/13/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gyöngyös38%
×Draw23%
Sényő Carnifex39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.70
Sényő Carnifex
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 110 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
61%
Gyöngyös or Sényő Carnifex
77%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
62%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
19%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
82%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
51%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
24%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
82%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
52%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
49%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
38%
level
23%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
39%

Sényő Carnifex at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyöngyös vs Sényő Carnifex

Gyöngyös beat Sényő Carnifex 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.