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Gyöngyös vs Kisvárda II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
3/10/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 19Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gyöngyös27%
×Draw23%
Kisvárda II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.25
Kisvárda II
1.80

Kisvárda II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Kisvárda II
1.44

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Kisvárda II
1.17

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Kisvárda II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
50%
Gyöngyös or Kisvárda II
77%
Draw or Kisvárda II
73%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
11%
Kisvárda II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
71%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
36%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
13%
Kisvárda II 1+ goals
83%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
54%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
35%
Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Kisvárda II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Kisvárda II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kisvárda II attack 1.44 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
27%
level
23%
Kisvárda II scores more
50%

Kisvárda II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Gyöngyös 0–1 Kisvárda II

Kisvárda II beat Gyöngyös 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.