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Gyöngyös vs Jászberényi Vasas — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
2 – 2
Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
5/12/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 35Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gyöngyös41%
×Draw23%
Jászberényi Vasas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.77
Jászberényi Vasas
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Jászberényi Vasas
1.20

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Jászberényi Vasas
2.21

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Jászberényi Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
63%
Gyöngyös or Jászberényi Vasas
77%
Draw or Jászberényi Vasas
59%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
21%
Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
83%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
53%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
26%
Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
81%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
50%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
52%
Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Jászberényi Vasas away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.20 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
41%
level
23%
Jászberényi Vasas scores more
37%

Gyöngyös at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gyöngyös will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyöngyös vs Jászberényi Vasas

Gyöngyös and Jászberényi Vasas drew 2-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.