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Gyöngyös vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
1 – 1
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
2/28/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gyöngyös33%
×Draw25%
Cegledi VSE42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.35
Cegledi VSE
1.56

Cegledi VSE creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Cegledi VSE
0.96

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Cegledi VSE
1.37

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
58%
Gyöngyös or Cegledi VSE
75%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
67%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
15%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
74%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
39%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
15%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
79%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
46%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
44%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cegledi VSE attack 0.96 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
33%
level
25%
Cegledi VSE scores more
42%

Cegledi VSE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Gyöngyös 1–1 Cegledi VSE

Gyöngyös and Cegledi VSE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.