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Gyöngyös vs BVSC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
0 – 2
BVSC
BVSC
4/11/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 28Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gyöngyös20%
×Draw22%
BVSC58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.04
BVSC
1.95

BVSC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
BVSC
1.74

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
BVSC
0.76

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
BVSC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

BVSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
42%
Gyöngyös or BVSC
78%
Draw or BVSC
80%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
7%
BVSC wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
65%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
28%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
9%
BVSC 1+ goals
86%
BVSC 2+ goals
58%
BVSC 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
25%
BVSC (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

BVSC away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + BVSC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

BVSC attack 1.74 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
20%
level
22%
BVSC scores more
58%

BVSC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Gyöngyös 0–2 BVSC

BVSC beat Gyöngyös 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.