Gyirmót II 1–3 Veszprém: Result & Stats

Gyirmót II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Veszprém

10/21/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 14Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gyirmót II31%

×Draw23%

Veszprém46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyirmót IIExpected goals in this matchVeszprém

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.75

Gyirmót II

1.40

Veszprém

1.75

Veszprém creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

1.71

creates per match

1.64

1.87

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Gyirmót II

1.71

Veszprém

1.64

allows per match

Gyirmót II

1.87

Veszprém

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Veszprém+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Veszprém →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw

54%

Gyirmót II or Veszprém

77%

Draw or Veszprém

69%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+

14%

Veszprém wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals

75%

Gyirmót II 2+ goals

41%

Gyirmót II 3+ goals

17%

Veszprém 1+ goals

83%

Veszprém 2+ goals

52%

Veszprém 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)

40%

Veszprém (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Veszprém away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + Veszprém defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.40

Veszprém attack 1.64 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gyirmót II scores more

31%

level

23%

Veszprém scores more

46%

Veszprém at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff