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Gyirmót II vs Pápai Perutz — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
0 – 0
Pápai Perutz
Pápai Perutz
11/14/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 17Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gyirmót II33%
×Draw24%
Pápai Perutz43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
1.35
Pápai Perutz
1.58

Pápai Perutz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
1.71
Pápai Perutz
1.28

allows per match

Gyirmót II
1.87
Pápai Perutz
1.00

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
Pápai Perutz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Pápai Perutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
57%
Gyirmót II or Pápai Perutz
76%
Draw or Pápai Perutz
67%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
14%
Pápai Perutz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
74%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
39%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
15%
Pápai Perutz 1+ goals
79%
Pápai Perutz 2+ goals
47%
Pápai Perutz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
43%
Pápai Perutz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Pápai Perutz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + Pápai Perutz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pápai Perutz attack 1.28 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
33%
level
24%
Pápai Perutz scores more
43%

Pápai Perutz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pápai Perutz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
J. Koles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyirmót II vs Pápai Perutz

Gyirmót II and Pápai Perutz drew 0-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.