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Gyirmót II vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
3/2/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 18Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gyirmót II36%
×Draw22%
III. Kerületi TUE42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
1.70
III. Kerületi TUE
1.87

III. Kerületi TUE creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
2.23
III. Kerületi TUE
1.67

allows per match

Gyirmót II
2.07
III. Kerületi TUE
1.17

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
58%
Gyirmót II or III. Kerületi TUE
78%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
64%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
18%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
82%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
51%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
24%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
85%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
56%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
46%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 2.23 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.70

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + Gyirmót II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
36%
level
22%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
42%

III. Kerületi TUE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyirmót II vs III. Kerületi TUE

Gyirmót II beat III. Kerületi TUE 2-1 in NB III - Northwest on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.