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Gyirmót II vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
3/31/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 22Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gyirmót II55%
×Draw20%
Csornai SE25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
2.28
Csornai SE
1.50

Gyirmót II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
2.23
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

Gyirmót II
2.07
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
75%
Gyirmót II or Csornai SE
80%
Draw or Csornai SE
45%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
34%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
90%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
66%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
39%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
78%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
44%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
69%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 2.23 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.28

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + Gyirmót II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
55%
level
20%
Csornai SE scores more
25%

Gyirmót II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gyirmót II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Gyirmót II 1–1 Csornai SE

Gyirmót II and Csornai SE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northwest on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.