Gyirmót II 0–6 BVSC: Result & Stats

Gyirmót II

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

BVSC

T. Geringer 70'

N. Kokenszky 66', 60', 32'

G. Szalanszki 13'

M. Szilagyi 3' (pen)

2/20/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyirmót II22%

×Draw20%

BVSC58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyirmót IIExpected goals in this matchBVSC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.28

Gyirmót II

1.35

BVSC

2.28

BVSC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

2.68

1.87

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gyirmót II

1.71

BVSC

2.68

allows per match

Gyirmót II

1.87

BVSC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par

BVSC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

BVSC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw

42%

Gyirmót II or BVSC

80%

Draw or BVSC

78%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+

9%

BVSC wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals

74%

Gyirmót II 2+ goals

39%

Gyirmót II 3+ goals

15%

BVSC 1+ goals

90%

BVSC 2+ goals

66%

BVSC 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)

28%

BVSC (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

BVSC away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + BVSC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

BVSC attack 2.68 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gyirmót II scores more

22%

level

20%

BVSC scores more

58%

BVSC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. SzilagyiPenalty

13'

G. Szalanszki

32'

N. Kokenszky

60'

N. Kokenszky

66'

N. Kokenszky

70'

T. Geringer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff