Gyirmót II 7–4 Balatonfüredi: Result & Stats

Gyirmót II

FT

7 – 4

HT: 4 – 2

Balatonfüredi

11/18/2023

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 16Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gyirmót II52%

×Draw21%

Balatonfüredi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyirmót IIExpected goals in this matchBalatonfüredi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.51

Gyirmót II

2.15

Balatonfüredi

1.51

Gyirmót II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

2.23

creates per match

0.96

2.07

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Gyirmót II

2.23

Balatonfüredi

0.96

allows per match

Gyirmót II

2.07

Balatonfüredi

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Balatonfüredi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw

73%

Gyirmót II or Balatonfüredi

79%

Draw or Balatonfüredi

48%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+

31%

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals

88%

Gyirmót II 2+ goals

63%

Gyirmót II 3+ goals

36%

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals

78%

Balatonfüredi 2+ goals

44%

Balatonfüredi 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)

66%

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Balatonfüredi away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 2.23 + Balatonfüredi defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.15

Balatonfüredi attack 0.96 + Gyirmót II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gyirmót II scores more

52%

level

21%

Balatonfüredi scores more

27%

Gyirmót II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gyirmót II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff