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Gyeongnam FC vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang — FA Cup 2019

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
3/9/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundMiryang Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gyeongnam FC61%
×Draw21%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
2.08
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.03

Gyeongnam FC creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.33
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.17

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
0.89
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
2.83

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
82%
Gyeongnam FC or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
79%
Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
39%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
38%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
87%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
61%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
34%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals
64%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals
28%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
77%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.33 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.17 + Gyeongnam FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
61%
level
21%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more
18%

Gyeongnam FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongnam FC vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Gyeongnam FC beat Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2-0 in FA Cup on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Miryang Public Stadium in Miryang.