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Gyeongnam FC vs Gimpo Citizen — K League 2 2026

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gimpo Citizen
Gimpo Citizen
9/25/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 32Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Gyeongnam FC35%
×Draw27%
Gimpo Citizen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
1.19
Gimpo Citizen
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 89 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.34
Gimpo Citizen
1.08

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.40
Gimpo Citizen
1.04

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Gimpo Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
63%
Gyeongnam FC or Gimpo Citizen
73%
Draw or Gimpo Citizen
65%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
15%
Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
70%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
33%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
12%
Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals
71%
Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals
35%
Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
48%
Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Gimpo Citizen away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.04 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.08 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
35%
level
27%
Gimpo Citizen scores more
37%

Gimpo Citizen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimpo Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongnam FC vs Gimpo Citizen

Gyeongnam FC and Gimpo Citizen drew 1-1 in K League 2 on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Changwon Football Center in Changwon.